October 26, 2026 | The Wider Chronicle
A Guardian investigation published Monday reports that residents fleeing airstrikes around Jilib are seeking safety near the flood-prone Juba River. The report raises allegations that military operations are increasing civilians’ exposure to flooding.
US Africa Command denied targeting civilians, deliberately displacing communities or using weather as a weapon. The Wider Chronicle has not independently verified the allegations.
A separate warning about the rains
The International Committee of the Red Cross warned on October 13 that El Niño could intensify Somalia’s October–December Deyr rains, bringing severe flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. That earlier warning provides context for today’s investigation; it is not a new announcement.
El Niño begins in the equatorial Pacific but can alter weather far beyond it. For river communities, heavier rainfall can turn an already difficult season into a threat to homes, farmland and access to essential services.
Protection and access
The immediate humanitarian priorities are safe movement, timely flood warnings and access to assistance. Families should not have to choose between exposure to violence and exposure to rising water.
The allegations about military intent remain disputed. Assessing them requires evidence about individual operations and their effects on civilians, alongside the US response. The flood warning itself should be taken seriously regardless of how those allegations are resolved.
Sources: The Guardian investigation, October 26; ICRC flood warning, October 13.